Pre- and Post-COVID-19 Scenario: Impact on Migration, Occupation and Income in Maharashtra State

Abstract

COVID-19, a virus that struck in the last quarter of 2019 in China, spread worldwide. March 2020 saw the imposition of lockdowns, disrupting not just the health condition of millions of people but also economic activities. India remained one of the most affected countries both in terms of death rates and the economy as a whole. Migrants were one of the most affected groups; many of them lost their jobs and were left stranded. This paper tries to understand the impact of the pandemic on migrants in Maharashtra. The data was sourced from the Directorate of Economics and Statistics of the Government of Maharashtra, and a comprehensive analysis was conducted. The study examined variables such as gender, sector, education, occupation, family type (nature of trade), marital status, and COVID-19 infection to determine their impact on migration during the pandemic. Microanalysis was used to gain a nuanced understanding of the situation, and the chi-square test is employed to identify associations. The study also compares pre- and post-COVID expenditure levels using a T-test analysis, and a logistic regression model was applied to determine the factors influencing migration decisions. The results contradict the beliefs and anecdotes existing during and after COVID-19, at least in Maharashtra. The results show no difference in the likelihood of migration for those not infected with COVID-19 compared with those infected. The likelihood of unmarried respondents with lower levels of education, those not in the labour force and women of working age is higher than married, secondary education, working, males and the rest category respondents respectively. Additionally, the average monthly expenditures of migrants and non-migrants have also been found to be different. The study gives a detailed understanding of the migration situation post-COVID within Maharashtra.